France 2027: Mélenchon and Philippe neck and neck as Le Pen maintains clear lead
A new French presidential poll puts Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Édouard Philippe in a tight contest behind Marine Le Pen, who retains a clear first-round lead.
Euro Times / Paris
A new opinion poll on France’s 2027 presidential election shows Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of La France Insoumise, and former prime minister and Le Havre mayor Édouard Philippe locked in a close contest for a place in the second round, while Marine Le Pen retains a clear lead in first-round voting intentions.
According to the Cluster17 poll, also covered by Le Parisien, Le Pen remains well ahead of the field, while the closest race is for second place between Mélenchon and Philippe.
Mélenchon and Philippe neck and neck
Across the scenarios tested by Cluster17, Philippe scores around 17–18% when he represents the central bloc, while Mélenchon is also around 17–18%. Raphaël Glucksmann stands at roughly 11–11.5%.
In a scenario where Gabriel Attal runs instead of Philippe, Attal receives 13.5%, while Mélenchon remains ahead among the principal contenders for second place.
Le Pen maintains a clear lead
Marine Le Pen records between 29% and 31.5% of first-round voting intentions depending on the scenario tested, leaving her clearly ahead of the other potential candidates. At this stage, however, the figures are a snapshot of voting intentions rather than a prediction of the election result.
The poll also places Bruno Retailleau between 6.5% and 9%, depending on the configuration of candidates, while several other prospective contenders register lower shares.
Second place remains highly competitive
The results underline how close the contest remains among the leading challengers behind Le Pen and how the identity of the centrist candidate could affect the ordering of the field. The fragmentation of possible candidacies across the left, centre and right also means that each scenario needs to be read separately.
Cluster17 published the presidential voting-intention survey in September 2026. As with all opinion polls, the results reflect respondents’ preferences at the time of fieldwork and may change as the campaign develops.
