Sweden election turns into a dead heat: Just one seat separates opposition and Tidö bloc
Euro Times – Stockholm
Sweden’s 2026 election turned into a knife-edge race on Sunday night as the clear opposition lead seen in the exit polls narrowed sharply once actual counted votes began feeding into the national picture. SVT’s latest statistical projection gives the Social Democrats, Left Party, Greens and Centre Party 175 seats, against 174 seats for the Moderate Party, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats and Liberals.
The 175–174 split is an SVT projection, not a final official allocation of seats. It is based on votes already counted and a statistical model estimating the nationwide outcome.
Actual count shows an exceptionally tight race
According to figures reported by Sveriges Radio/Ekot at around 22:30, 3,588 of 6,626 electoral districts had been counted, about 54%. In those counted votes, S+V+C+MP stood at 49.4%, compared with 49.1% for the four Tidö parties.
- S: 27.6%
- M: 19.7%
- SD: 17.7%
- V: 8.3%
- C: 7.2%
- KD: 6.3%
- MP: 6.3%
- L: 5.4%
These are votes actually counted at that point, but they are not the final national result because districts finish counting at different times.
About 20,000 votes could separate the blocs
SVT’s projection indicated that the final gap between the blocs could be around 20,000 votes. If the race remains this close, late advance votes and remaining votes from Swedes abroad could become decisive.
A dramatic shift from the exit poll
SVT Valu had initially put S+V+MP+C at 51.3%, compared with 46.8% for the Tidö parties. As actual votes entered the count, that comfortable-looking lead turned into an almost complete tie.
SVT’s model uses results from districts already counted together with historical voting patterns and demographic information to estimate the final national result. It remains a forecast and must not be confused with the official count.
Liberals remain above the parliamentary threshold
The Liberals were at 5.4% after more than half of the districts had been counted, keeping them above Sweden’s 4% parliamentary threshold. Their survival in parliament is crucial to the Tidö bloc’s ability to compete for a majority.
Moderates ahead of Sweden Democrats
The actual count at that stage put the Moderates at 19.7% and the Sweden Democrats at 17.7%, potentially reversing their order from the 2022 election, when SD became Sweden’s second-largest party.
The Social Democrats remained the largest party at 27.6% in the counted districts, while SVT’s projection placed them at about 27.7%.
The final answer may not come tonight
Valmyndigheten has stressed that not all votes are completed on election night. Late-arriving advance votes and remaining votes from abroad are counted later, followed by the county administrative boards’ final count and verification.
Even if the opposition ultimately retains 175 seats, government formation would not automatically be straightforward. The Centre Party rejects a government that includes the Left Party, while the Left has demanded government participation if its seats are necessary for a new majority.
Sweden could therefore wake up on Monday without a definitive answer to the central question: which bloc has won the election and who will have the clearest path to forming the next government?
