Iraq Strike Hits Saudi Arabia’s Escape Route From Hormuz as Oil Pipeline Crisis Deepens
Euro Times – Stockholm
Saudi Arabia’s East–West oil pipeline, which has become one of the kingdom’s most important export arteries away from the Strait of Hormuz during the war, could remain almost entirely out of service for as long as five weeks after damage caused by a drone attack launched from Iraq, threatening to remove millions of barrels a day from an already tight global oil market.
Associated Press reported Monday, citing regional officials familiar with the situation, that repairs to the damage, which included a major pumping facility, could take between three and five weeks.
One official said the pipeline may be able to operate partially during the repair process, although it remains unclear how much crude could be moved.
The significance of the disruption lies in the fact that the East–West pipeline is no longer just part of Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure. During the war it has become the main route used by the kingdom to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and move crude from eastern Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
2.6 to 4 million barrels a day at risk
According to an analysis by Rystad Energy, the pipeline had been carrying a weekly average of between 2.6 million and 4 million barrels per day since late August.
If flows are halted completely, those volumes could disappear from the market for the duration of the outage.
To put the figure in perspective, 4 million barrels a day is equivalent to roughly 4% of global oil supply, according to figures cited by AP based on International Energy Agency data.
That helps explain the market reaction, with oil prices rising by more than 2% as concerns mounted over Saudi Arabia’s ability, as the world’s largest crude exporter, to get its production to market.
Why has the pipeline become so important?
The East–West pipeline stretches for about 1,200 kilometers across Saudi Arabia, carrying crude from processing facilities near the Gulf to Yanbu on the Red Sea.
From Yanbu, crude can be loaded onto tankers heading north through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, or transferred through Egypt’s SUMED pipeline to the Mediterranean. Under normal conditions it can also move south through Bab el-Mandeb toward Asian markets.
The pipeline was originally built in the 1980s because of concerns that Iran could disrupt shipping through Hormuz during the Iran–Iraq war.
Decades later, the scenario it was designed to mitigate has become a reality again.
Since the current war began and tanker traffic through Hormuz fell sharply, the East–West pipeline has become one of the most important remaining alternatives for Saudi oil exports.
Yanbu stocks may last only 5 to 7 days
But the most sensitive development may emerge within days, not weeks.
Reuters reported, citing three oil industry sources, that crude stocks available in Yanbu may be sufficient to maintain exports for only five to seven days if the pipeline remains shut.
After that, maintaining current export levels would become more difficult unless partial flows resume or alternative routes and inventories are used.
The first signs of the problem are already visible in Europe.
Shipping data cited by Reuters show that crude volumes moving from Egypt’s Sidi Kerir terminal to Poland are expected to fall this month to around 2.1 million barrels, down from 6.6 million barrels in August.
The figures matter because Saudi Aramco supplies about 40% of the oil processed by Poland’s Orlen group.
Orlen said it was not facing immediate supply disruptions and that it relies on diversified sources, while vessel-tracking data showed tankers arriving from the United States, Algeria and Norway.
The strike hit Saudi Arabia’s “escape route” from Hormuz
The strategic importance of the attack lies in its timing.
As navigation through Hormuz became increasingly difficult, Saudi Arabia pushed larger volumes westward toward Yanbu.
The East–West pipeline therefore became, in practical terms, Saudi Arabia’s escape route from the Hormuz crisis.
The latest attack hit that route itself.
Saudi Arabia had announced the pipeline’s shutdown after a drone attack, while Riyadh and Baghdad said the drones were launched from Iraqi territory.
The Iraqi government later said its investigation traced the attack to Maysan province and dismissed the Maysan Operations Commander over the case.
Saudi Arabia said strikes affecting areas in Riyadh and Medina caused injuries and infrastructure damage.
The Red Sea is no longer a fully safe alternative
Even if Saudi Arabia succeeds in restarting the pipeline, a second problem remains: what happens to the oil once it reaches the Red Sea?
The Houthis have expanded their control and military activity along Yemen’s coast and around Bab el-Mandeb, making the southern route from the Red Sea to Asia more dangerous.
As a result, most Saudi tankers leaving Yanbu recently have headed north toward the Suez Canal or Egypt’s SUMED pipeline rather than south through Bab el-Mandeb.
That route is longer and more expensive for shipments to Saudi Arabia’s main customers in Asia.
The challenge is becoming more complicated as the Houthis expand operations and seize strategic islands along Red Sea shipping routes while attacks on Saudi targets continue.
Saudi production down to 6 million barrels a day
The pipeline crisis comes as Saudi oil production itself has fallen sharply during the war.
According to International Energy Agency figures cited by AP, Saudi output stood at about 6 million barrels a day in August, compared with around 10 million barrels a day in September last year.
This leaves Saudi Arabia under two simultaneous pressures: lower production capacity and damage to one of the most important routes for moving the remaining output to market.
Hormuz has partially reopened, but remains far from normal
Saudi Arabia does have a limited relief valve in the form of some tanker traffic returning through the Strait of Hormuz.
But activity remains far below prewar levels.
According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data cited by AP, the first week of September recorded about 90 total transits through the strait, compared with roughly 130 ships per day before the war.
Redirecting large Saudi volumes back through Hormuz therefore remains neither a simple nor a complete substitute for the East–West pipeline.
From a Saudi problem to a global supply crisis
The issue is no longer simply about repairing a pipeline inside Saudi Arabia.
If repairs take five weeks, exportable inventories at Yanbu run down within days, Hormuz traffic remains constrained and risks persist around Bab el-Mandeb, the oil market could lose a significant share of Saudi supply for an extended period.
Rystad Energy has described Brent crude trading near $109 a barrel as a clear sign that the market is already pricing in the possibility of a major supply loss.
This is the real significance of the strike on the East–West pipeline.
The war first shut or restricted the traditional oil route through Hormuz, pushing Saudi Arabia to rely more heavily on the overland alternative to the Red Sea.
Now the war has hit the alternative itself, while the other maritime outlet through Bab el-Mandeb is also under growing pressure.
A single strike on a pumping facility inside Saudi Arabia could therefore develop into a crisis stretching from Gulf oil fields through Yanbu, the Red Sea and Egypt to refineries and consumers in Europe and Asia.
