Sweden election: Two exit polls put opposition at 51.3% as Kristersson refuses to concede before counting is complete
Euro Times – Ali Aljabiri
Sweden’s 2026 election entered its decisive phase on Sunday evening as vote counting began after polling stations closed, while two separate election-day surveys gave the opposition parties a clear lead over the governing Tidö bloc.
The SVT Valu exit poll showed the Social Democrats, Left Party, Green Party and Centre Party together on 51.3%, compared with 46.8% for the Moderates, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats and Liberals.
At the same time, TV4’s election-day poll also put the opposition on 51.3%, against 47.0% for the Tidö parties.
These figures, however, are not the official election result. Vote counting is still underway in electoral districts, while the Swedish Election Authority, Valmyndigheten, is publishing preliminary figures as district results arrive.
SVT Valu: Opposition 51.3%, Tidö 46.8%
According to SVT Valu, the Social Democrats came first with 28.4%.
The Moderates received 18.1%, ahead of the Sweden Democrats on 17.2% in the poll.
- Social Democrats (S): 28.4%
- Moderates (M): 18.1%
- Sweden Democrats (SD): 17.2%
- Left Party (V): 8.0%
- Centre Party (C): 7.5%
- Green Party (MP): 7.4%
- Christian Democrats (KD): 6.1%
- Liberals (L): 5.4%
That gives the opposition bloc of S, V, MP and C a combined 51.3%, compared with 46.8% for the four Tidö parties.
TV4 shows the same bloc trend, but a different party order
TV4’s poll was very close to SVT’s at bloc level, giving the opposition 51.3% against 47.0% for the Tidö parties.
It differed, however, in the ordering of the Moderates and Sweden Democrats, placing SD second on 18.5% and the Moderates on 17.5%.
- Social Democrats (S): 28.4%
- Sweden Democrats (SD): 18.5%
- Moderates (M): 17.5%
- Centre Party (C): 9.0%
- Green Party (MP): 7.0%
- Left Party (V): 6.9%
- Christian Democrats (KD): 6.0%
- Liberals (L): 5.0%
Liberals clear the parliamentary threshold in both polls
One of the most notable developments of the night is that the Liberals cleared the 4% threshold required to enter parliament in both surveys.
The party received 5.4% in SVT Valu and 5.0% in TV4’s poll, after its survival in parliament had been one of the campaign’s biggest uncertainties.
Kristersson does not consider the race decided
On the government side, SVT reported that the Moderates do not intend to consider the contest settled even if the initial figures show an opposition majority.
That is because forming a government in Sweden depends not only on the relative size of the blocs, but also on whether a government can be formed that parliament will tolerate.
Andersson’s dilemma: Centre versus Left
If the opposition lead is confirmed in the actual results, Social Democratic leader Magdalena Andersson will immediately face the challenge of putting together a viable majority.
The Left Party demands a place in government if its seats are needed for a majority, while the Centre Party rejects a government that includes the Left.
An SVT analysis noted that Valu gives S, V, MP and C a combined 51.3%, but that this does not automatically resolve the government-formation deadlock because of the red lines between the Centre and Left parties.
The analysis also raised another possible combination involving the Social Democrats, Centre Party, Green Party and Christian Democrats, which could hold a majority if the final result is close to the exit-poll trend.
The actual count is what matters now
With the exit polls released, attention is now turning to the actual vote count.
Valmyndigheten says preliminary results appear gradually during election night as district results arrive, while the final parliamentary result is expected to be completed by the end of the following week.
For now, the clearest picture is that both SVT and TV4 put the opposition on exactly 51.3%, while the final outcome still depends on the actual vote count.
